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Mapping supply and demand of animal food sources to 2030

UN FAO report examining how supply and demand of animal food sources is likely to change by 2030.

A few related points

India & Poultry increase

The results show that by far the most dramatic change is the projected increase in demand for poultry meat in South Asia; a 725 percent increase overall. This is driven by growth in demand in India where a staggering 850 percent increase is projected over the 30 year period (from 1.05 to 9.92 million tonnes, annually).

They also show that the vast majority of growth in most areas is caused by increasing per capita consumption rates rather than by increasing population levels. In India, for example if consumption rates of poultry meat remained constant to 2030 only 5 percent of the projected growth would occur; whilst, even if the population size remained static 69 percent of the demand growth would still occur, driven by changing food consumption patterns

Poultry Increase

By far the largest proportion of livestock sector growth in recent years is attributable to the poultry sector, which has consistently grown at more than 5 percent per annum since the 1960s. Its share in world meat production doubled from 15 percent thirty years ago to 30 percent in 2000.

Demand growth through consumption increase

The disaggregation of demand growth, presented here, shows that the majority of the growth will stem from the burgeoning urban areas of the developing world, rather than rural populations, and closely linked to that, will be driven by changing consumption patterns to a far greater extent than by population growth. Demand growth associated with increasing consumption rates and urbanisation will require structural changes to the livestock sector in order that demand is met by increased supply: intensification of production and longer supply chains.

Intensive Production & Public Health

Significant animal and public health risks have also been associated with the concentration of intensive production systems in close proximity to densely-populated urban areas, and particularly in areas where this may occur among large populations of livestock raised by small-holders, under extensive production systems, with low levels of biosecurity. The fears are firstly of rapid multiplication of pathogens moving from extensive to intensive systems (and vice-versa), which could lead to the emergence or re-emergence of diseases, for example through virulence jumps within high-density, genetically similar, susceptible populations, and secondly the passage of zoonotic pathogens to the human population from these high-density production systems. 

Grain Usage

In 2004, for example, 34 percent of the global cereal harvest, a total of 690 million tonnes, were fed to livestock (Steinfeld et al., 2006)

Land Usage

What is certain is that the land use changes required to meet the projected demands in livestock may contribute substantially to undermining the capacity of global ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain fresh water and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality and ameliorate infectious diseases